Networks
Co-Authors
Co-Investigators
Map Of Science
Ellner, Stephen Paul
Cornell Faculty Member
Close
Positions
Research Areas
- biocomplexity
- computational biology
- disease control
- ecology
- mathematics
- risk analysis and assessment
- Affiliations
- Research
- Publications
- Teaching
- Service
- Background
- View All
Affiliations
other Cornell affiliations
member of
- David R. Atkinson Center for a Sustainable Future (ACSF) Faculty Fellow
Research
principal investigator on
- CONTEMPORARY RAPID EVOLUTION AND PERSISTENCE IN COMPLEX ECOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES II awarded by MCDONNELL FDN JAMES S 2011 - 2012
- CONTEMPORARY RAPID EVOLUTION: DYNAMICS AND PERSISTENCE IN COMPLEX ECOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES awarded by MCDONNELL FDN JAMES S 2008 - 2012
- POSTDOCTORAL RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP: ADAPTIVE BEHAVIOR AND EVOLUTION AS MECHANISMS OF POPULATION STABILITY awarded by NATL SCIENCE FOUNDATION 2009 - 2012
- RAPID EVOLUTION AND THE DYNAMICS OF COMPLEX ECOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES awarded by NATL SCIENCE FOUNDATION 2008 - 2013
Publications
individual publications
-
academic article
- Avoiding unintentional eviction from integral projection models.. Ecology. 93:2008-2014. 2012
- Comments on: Inference for size demography from point pattern data using Integral Projection Models.. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics. 17:641-677. 2012
- Designing an effective trap cropping strategy: the effects of attraction, retention and plant spatial distribution. . Journal of Applied Ecology. 49:715-722. 2012
- Forecasting plant community impacts of climate variability and change: when do competitive interactions matter?. Journal of Ecology. 100:478-487. 2012
- Temporally variable dispersal and demography can accelerate the spread of invading species.. Theoretical Population Biology. 82:283-298. 2012
- The functional genomics of an eco-evolutionary feedback loop: linking gene expression, trait evolution, and community dynamics.. Ecology Letters. 15:492-501. 2012
- Variable cost of prey defense and coevolution in predator–prey systems.. Ecological Monographs. 82:491-504. 2012
- Does rapid evolution matter? Measuring the rate of contemporary evolution and its impacts on ecological dynamics. Ecology Letters. 14:603-614. 2011
- Impacts of aspergillosis on sea fan coral demography: modeling a moving target. Ecological Monographs. 81:123-139. 2011
- Importance of individual and environmental variation for invasive species spread: a spatial integral projection model. Ecology. 92:86-97. 2011
- Rapid prey evolution and the dynamics of two-predator food webs. Theoretical Ecology. 4:133-152. 2011
- Coexistence of perennial plants: an embarrasment of niches. Ecology Letters. 13:1019-1029. 2010
- Computational and analytic perspectives on the drift paradox. SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems. 9:333-356. 2010
- How Microbial Community Composition Regulates Coral Disease Development. PLoS Biology. . 2010
- Reduction of adaptive genetic diversity radically alters eco-evolutionary community dynamics. Ecology Letters. 13:989-997. 2010
- Understanding Rapid Evolution in Predator-Prey Interactions Using the Theory of Fast-Slow Dynamical Systems. American Naturalist. 176. 2010
- Rapid evolution and clonal food web dynamics. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. 364:1579-1591. 2009
- Cryptic population dynamics: rapid evolution masks trophic interactions. Public Library of Science - Biology. 5:1868-1879. 2007
- Effects of rapid prey evolution on predator-prey cycles. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 55:541-573. 2007
- Stochastic stable population growth in integral projection models: Theory and application. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 54:227-256. 2007
- Within-host disease ecology in the sea fan Gorgonia ventalina: modeling the spatial immunodynamics of a coral-pathogen interaction. American Naturalist. 170. 2007
- Integral projection models for species with complex demography. American Naturalist. 167:410-428. 2006
- Mechanisms for consumer diversity. Nature. 439. 2006
- Prey evolution on the time scale of predator–prey dynamics revealed by allele-specific quantitative PCR. Proceedings at the National Academy of Science USA. 103:10690-10695. 2006
- Why animals lie: How dishonesty and belief can coexist in a signaling system. American Naturalist. 168. 2006
- Ecological and evolutionary dynamics of experimental plankton communities. Advances in Ecological Research. 37:221-243. 2005
- Pest control by genetic manipulation of sex ratio. Journal of Economic Entomology. 98:18-34. 2005
- Population cycles in the pine looper moth Bupalus piniarius: dynamical tests of mechanistic hypotheses. Ecological Monographs. 75. 2005
- Rapid evolution and the convergence of ecological and evolutionary time. Ecology Letters. 8:1114-1127. 2005
- When can noise induce chaos and why does it matter: a critique. Oikos: A Journal of Ecology. 111:620-631. 2005
- Evolution of size-dependent flowering in a variable environment: construction and analysis of a stochastic integral projection model. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B. 271:425-434. 2004
- Evolutionary tradeoff and equilibrium in an aquatic predator-prey system. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 66:1547-1573. 2004
- Evolutionary tradeoff between defence against grazing and competetive ability in a simple unicellular alga, Chlorella vulgaris. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B. 271:1947-1953. 2004
- The rising tide of ocean diseases: unsolved problems and research priorities. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. 2:375-382. 2004
- Dynamical effects of plant quality and parasitism on population cycles of larch budmoth. Ecology. 84:1207-1214. 2003
- Effects of successional dynamics on metapopulation persistence. Ecology. 84:882-889. 2003
- Evolution as a critical component of plankton dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B. 270:1015-1022. 2003
- Evolution of complex flowering strategies: An age- and size-structured integral projection model. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B. 270:1829-1838. 2003
- Pair-edge approximation for heterogeneous lattice population models. Theoretical Population Biology. 64:271-280. 2003
- Rapid evolution drives ecological dynamics in a predator-prey system. Nature. 424:303-306. 2003
- Using PVA for management despite uncertainty: Effects of habitat, hatcheries, and harvest on salmon. Ecology. 84:1359-1369. 2003
- When does parameter drift decrease the uncertainty in extinction risk estimates?. Ecology Letters. 6:1039-1045. 2003
- Energy storage and the evolution of population dynamics. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 215:183-200. 2002
- Fitting population models to time series data by gradient matching. Ecology. 83:2256-2270. 2002
- Precision of population viability analysis. Conservation Biology. 16:258-261. 2002
- Predator-prey cycles in an aquatic microcosm: Testing hypotheses of mechanism. Journal of Animal Ecology. 7:802-815. 2002
- Scaling up animal movements in heterogeneous landscapes: The importance of behavior. Ecology. 83:2240-2247. 2002
- State-dependent energy allocation in variable environments: Life history evolution of a rotifer. Ecology. 83:2181-2193. 2002
- Using spatial statistics to select model complexity. Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics. 11:348-369. 2002
- Egg size evolution and energetic constraints on population dynamics. Theoretical Population Biology. 60:73-92. 2001
- Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community. Nature. 412:538-542. 2001
- Pair approximation for lattice models with multiple interaction scales. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 210:435-447. 2001
- Stochastic matrix models for conservation and management: A comparative review of methods. Ecology Letters. 43:244-266. 2001
- Cholera dynamics and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Science. 289:1766-1769. 2000
- Crossing the Hopf Bifurcation in a live predator-prey system. Science. 290:1358-1360. 2000
- Dormancy strategies in a random environment: Comparing structured and unstructured models. Evolutionary Ecology Research. 2:387-407. 2000
- Inferring colonization processes from population dynamics in spatially structured predator-prey systems. Ecology. 81:3350-3361. 2000
- Linking ecological patterns to environmental forcing via nonlinear time series modeling. Ecology. 81:2767-2780. 2000
- Living on the edge of chaos: Population dynamics of Fennoscandian voles. Ecology. 81:3099-3116. 2000
- Reconstruction of susceptible and recruitment dynamics from measles epidemic data. Mathematical Population Studies. 8:1-29. 2000
- Size-specific sensitivity: Applying a new structured population model. Ecology. 81:694-708. 2000
- Testing for predator dependence in predator-prey dynamics: A nonparametric approach. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series B. 267:1611-1620. 2000
- Varying migration and deme size and the feasibility of the shifting balance. Evolution. 54:324-327. 2000
- When is it meaningful to estimate an extinction probability?. Ecology. 81:2040-2047. 2000
- The roles of fluctuating selection and long-term diapause in microevolution of diapause timing in a freshwater copepod. Evolution. 53:111-122. 1999
- The spread of resistance in spatially extended regions of transgenic cotton: Implications for the management of Heliothis virescens (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Journal of Economic Entomology. 92:1-16. 1999
- Why do populations cycle? A synthesis of statistical and mechanistic modeling approaches. Ecology. 80:1789-1805. 1999
- A spatially explicit stochastic model demonstrates the feasibility of phase III of Wright's shifting balance. Evolution. 52:1834-1839. 1998
- Long-term diapause and spreading of risk across the life cycle. Archiv für Hydrobiologie. Advances in Limnology. 52:297-312. 1998
- Noise and nonlinearity in measles epidemics: Combining mechanistic and statistical approaches to population modeling. American Naturalist. 151:425-440. 1998
- Speed of invasion in lattice population models: Pair-edge approximation. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 36:469-484. 1998
- Effects of economic thresholds on the development of pesticide resistance in a regional setting. American Naturalist. 149:43-63. 1997
- Inferring mechanism from time-series data: Delay differential equations. Physica D. 110:182-194. 1997
- Quantitative genetic variance maintained by fluctuating selection with overlapping generations: Variance components and covariances. Evolution. 51:682-696. 1997
- Detecting nonlinear dynamics in spatio-temporal systems: Examples from ecological models. Physica D. 96:321-333. 1996
- Environmental fluctuations and the maintenance of genetic diversity in age- or stage-structured populations. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 58:103-129. 1996
- Patterns of genetic polymorphism maintained by fluctuating selection with overlapping generations. Theoretical Population Biology. 50:31-65. 1996
- Phenotypic variation in a zooplankton egg bank. Ecology. 77:2382-2392. 1996
- Seaweed biofilters as regulators of water quality in integrated fish-seaweed culture units. Aquaculture. 141:183-199. 1996
- Simulation model of recirculating mariculture with seaweed biofilter: Development and experimental tests of the model. Aquaculture. 143:167-184. 1996
- Some distinguishing features of models of search behavior and mate choice. American Naturalist. 147:188-204. 1996
- Chaos in a noisy world: New methods and evidence from time series analysis. American Naturalist. 145:343-375. 1995
- Nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in a prototype ‘non-polluting’ integrated mariculture system, Eilat, Israel. Marine Ecology Progress Series. 118:25-36. 1995
- The evolutionarily stable phenotype distribution in a random environment. Evolution. 49:337-350. 1995
- Measles as a case study in nonlinear forecasting and chaos. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A. 348:515-532. 1994
- Role of overlapping generations in maintaining genetic variation in a fluctuating environment. American Naturalist. 143:403-417. 1994
- Attention and the detection of prey by foragers. Ecology. 74:1337-1346. 1993
- Chaos in ecology: Is Mother Nature a strange attractor?. Annual Review of Ecology & Systematics. 24:1-33. 1993
- Web relocation and habitat selection in a desert widow spider. Ecology. 74:1915-1928. 1993
- A mathematical model for estimation of broiler egg weight loss from physical dimensions and air cell size during incubations. Poultry Science. 71:625-630. 1992
- Estimating the Lyapunov exponent of a chaotic system with nonparametric regression. Journal of the American Statistical Association. 87:682-695. 1992
- Finding chaos in noisy systems (with discussion). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B. 54:399-426. 1992
- Foraging graphs: Constraints on matching between bees and flowers in a two-sided pollination market. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 157:191-201. 1992
- Life history evolution in stochastic environments: A graphical mean-variance approach. Ecology. 73:1227-1236. 1992
- Simple methods for calculating age-specific life history parameters from stage-structured models. Ecological Monographs. 62:345-364. 1992
- Convergence rates and data requirements for Jacobian-based estimates of Lyapunov exponents from data. Physics Letters A. 153:357-363. 1991
- Ontogenetic and seasonal changes in webs and websites of the desert widow spider, Latrodectus revivensis. Journal of Arachnology. 19:40-48. 1991
- Short-term energy maximization and risk-aversion in bumblebees: A reply to Possingham et al. Ecology. 71:1625-1628. 1990
- Convergence to stationary distributions in two-species stochastic competition models. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 27:451-462. 1989
- Invasibility and stochastic boundedness in monotonic competition models. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 27:117-138. 1989
- Optimal foraging models for stochastic environments: Are we missing the point? . Comments on Theoretical Biology. 1:122-158. 1989
- Phytoplankton nutrient uptake dynamics in earthen marine fishponds under winter and summer conditions. Aquaculture. 76:237-253. 1989
- Estimating attractor dimensions from limited data: A new method, with error-estimates. Physics Letters A. 133:128-133. 1988
- A quantitative test of life history theory: Thermoregulation by a viviparous lizard. Ecological Monographs. 57:45-60. 1987
- Alternate plant life history strategies and coexistence in randomly varying environments. Vegetatio. 69:199-208. 1987
- Competition and dormancy: A reanalysis and review. American Naturalist. 130:798-803. 1987
- Effects of noise on some dynamical models in ecology. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 24:479-523. 1986
- Germination dimorphisms and parent-offspring conflict in seed germination. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 123:173-185. 1986
- ESS germination strategies in randomly varying environments. I. Logistic type models. Theoretical Population Biology. 28:50-79. 1985
- ESS germination strategies in randomly varying environments. II. Reciprocal yield law models. Theoretical Population Biology. 28:80-116. 1985
- The accuracy of Bartlett's small-fluctuation approximation for stochastic-difference-equation population models. Mathematical Biosciences. 74:233-246. 1985
- Asymptotic behavior of some stochastic difference equation population models. Journal of Mathematical Biology. 19:169-200. 1984
- Coexistence of plant species with similar niches. Vegetatio. 58:29-55. 1984
- Seed dispersal in relation to habitat in the genus Picris (Compositae). Israel Journal of Botany. 33:25-39. 1984
- Seed dispersal on pastoral grazers in open Mediterranean chaparral, Israel. Israel Journal of Botany. 32:147-159. 1983
- Why are adaptations for long-range seed dispersal rare in desert plants?. Oecologia. 51:133-144. 1981
-
booksection
- Overlapping generations: The storage effect and the maintenance of biotic diversity 1996
- The integration of seaweed biofilters with intensive fish ponds to improve water quality and recapture nutrients 1993
- A model of optimal thermoregulation during gestation by Sceloporus jarrovi, a live-bearing lizard 1984
-
chapter
- Blowflies as a case study in non-linear population dynamics. Chaos in real data: Analysis of non-linear dynamics from short ecological time series. 2000
- Defining chaos in real, noisy data: Lyapunov exponents and sensitive response to perturbations. Chaos in real data: Analysis of non-linear dynamics from short ecological time series. 2000
- Time-series modeling of population fluctuations. Chaos in real data: Analysis of non-linear dynamics from short ecological time series. 2000
- FUNFITS, data analysis and statistical tools for estimating functions. Case studies in environmental statistics (Lecture Notes in Statistics vol. 132. 159-179. 1998
- Chaos with confidence: Asymptotics and applications of Local Lyapunov Exponents. Nonlinear dynamics and time series: Building a bridge between the natural and statistical sciences. Fields Institute Communications, vol 110. 115-133. 1997
- You bet your life: Life-history strategies in fluctuating environments. Case studies in mathematical modeling: Ecology, physiology, and cell biology. 3-24. 1997
- Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in epidemic data. Epidemic models: Their structure and relation to data. 229-247. 1995
- Nonlinear forecasting and chaos in ecology and epidemiology: Measles as a case study. Chaos and forecasting. 321-345. 1995
- Detecting low-dimensional chaos in population dynamics data: A critical review. Chaos and insect ecology. 63-90. 1991
- Inferring the causes of population fluctuations. Lecture Notes in Biomathematics. 286-307. 1989
-
conference paper
- Embedding system dynamics in agent based models for complex adaptive systems. Proceedings of the 22nd International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI-2011). 2531-2538. 2011
- Embedding system dynamics in agent based models for complex adaptive systems. Proceedings of the 22nd International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence (IJCAI-‐2011). 2011
- Prey evolution on the time scale of predator-prey dynamics revealed by allele-specific quantitative PCR. 10690-10695. 2006
- Evolutionary tradeoff between defence against grazing and competitive ability in a simple unicellular alga, Chlorella vulgaris. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. 1947-1953. 2004
- Modeling and management for seawater fishponds. Mathematical ecology. Proceedings of the Autumn Course Research Seminars. 215-237. 1988
-
document part
- An evolutionary game theory model for risk-taking. 377-379. 1990
-
report
presentations
featured in archived article
speaker at Cornell event
Teaching
teaching activities
- BIOEE-3620: Dynamic Models in Biology - Spring 2013
- BIOEE-9990: Ph.D. Dissertation Research - Spring 2013
- MATH-3620: Dynamic Models in Biology - Spring 2013
- BIOEE-3610: Advanced Ecology - Fall 2012
- BIOEE-7600: Special Topics in Evolution and Ecology - Fall 2012
- BIOEE-9990: Ph.D. Dissertation Research - Fall 2012
- BIOEE-9990: Ph.D. Dissertation Research - Spring 2012
- BIOEE-3610: Advanced Ecology - Fall 2011
- BIOEE-9990: Ph.D. Dissertation Research - Fall 2011
Service
service to the profession
- Program Committee, SIAM Conference on Life Sciences/Society for Mathematical Biology Annual Meeting Committee Member - 2006
- Organizing and Program Committee Society for Mathematical Biology Annual Meeting, Committee Member - 1997